Monday Morning Coffee – A Dose of Home Sales Statistics Truth Serum

If you don’t like the statistics you’re hearing, change the channel . . . You’ll find wildly different stats and analysis while you surf.

Before polluting your mind with statistics that aren’t necessarily relevant to YOUR house and/or decision to sell a house, consider the following.

Most folks are hearing the “National Media Experts” talking about National, Regional, State, City level statistics. While it’s useful to have some education on the macro side of things, your decisions serve you better when based on LOCAL expert opinions. These National experts slice and dice the numbers from a Historical perspective . . . comparing today’s market activity to prior years.

Zillow.com is the leader in on-line “House valuation” . . . It’s all the rage. Plug in your address and hit the button and their algorithms study data from multiple sources and spit out a value for ya. If you don’t like the value it gives you, you can tweak it by fiddling with the amenities and features of the home. There are other on-line sources for valuation. All are based in large part on Historical Data (Again).

The Associations of REALTORS (National, State, & Local) almost ALL issue statistical analysis end of each month. These sales figures have a much higher credibility than most other “Macro” sources because they come from organizations who UNDERSTAND better when it comes to interpretation of the data. 2 caveats . . . The Associations are always going to “Positive Spin” the data as much as possible so as to avert consumer panic. They are very interested in more people buying MORE houses . . . and Every one of these I’ve seen compare today’s market to last year’s market (Prior Historical Data).

All of the above sources are “Macro” sources meaning they are aggregating sales statistic for HUGE areas. the national, regional, and state level statistics can be wildly skewed by just a few “bad eggs” – a couple of cities in particularly poor markets. The Local REALTOR Associations are more reliable but still have a fairly broad stroke and can be skewed by hard-hit neighborhoods or depressed areas of the market they serve . . . while other neighborhoods may be flourishing.

So . . . What’s the truth serum?

Call your NEIGHBORHOOD REALTOR!

Call the person who works in YOUR area and KNOWS the houses (Having personally walked through many of them). What you’ll hear from your local REALTOR will be “NOW” interpretation based on REAL, LIVE, RECENT HOME SALES.

The good news in Middle Tennessee is that the past 6 months have been very steady and active resulting in some REAL sales comparables (something we have not really had in the prior 6 months). This market is ALIVE AND WELL.

I am just now putting the finishing touches on the Pareto Realty Newsletter in which I am providing market activity data from both Greater Nashville and Williamson County Associations of REALTORS as well as my own analysis by zip code of many of the specific neighborhoods. Let me know if you wanna copy?

Of course . . . a zip code analysis is still fairly broad, so if you’re really wanting to know what’s going on on your street or in your specific neighborhood, contact us.

The same goes for any neighborhood in the country. When you’re SERIOUS about the REAL truth about house values, turn off the computer and TV and contact your LOCAL NEIGHBORHOOD REALTOR.

Just sayin’

Best,

b

(Coffee cup is empty)

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About Barry Owen

Residential Real Estate Principal Broker and Founder of Pareto Realty, LLC. Creating the quintessential real estate firm with emphasis on "Live, Work, & Play" balance . . . and a true Performance Oriented environment for Real Estate Professionals. Serving the Real estate needs of Home Buyers and Sellers in Middle Tennessee.
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